With a surge in pre-Puja crowds, swelling each day as the festival approaches, a spurt in the number of Covid cases is imminent by the end of this month in Kolkata, the experts feared. The plateauing of numbers and hospitalizations since early August resulted from a strict adherence to Covid protocol since the second wave.
This adherence had started to wane, and the consequences of that could be evident in a fortnight, the experts warned.
With the festival crowd set to peak during Puja this week, transmission, too, could be fast, though the number of affected people could be smaller than in the second wave, with most suffering mild infections, they predicted.
A section of doctors, however, warned that if the number of affected people swelled, there could be a proportionate rise in the number of those with severe disease, a substantial number despite vaccination.
“We have let our guard down,” said Raja Dhar, director of pulmonology, CMRI Hospital. “But the virus is still active and vaccination can’t prevent transmission. It can resist the disease and there will still be a handful, who could have severe infection despite inoculation. So, the next one month is going to be crucial.”
He added that there were several Covid patients under his treatment now, including some who had severe disease despite double vaccination. “One was on ventilation, another has just come out of it but is still serious. So, a section will still have severe disease despite vaccination, which underlines the importance of social distancing, which has now been almost obliterated,” Dhar added.
‘Need to protect kids, who are yet to be vaccinated’
Any overcrowding could lead to quick transmission, which is dangerous at this juncture when a third wave is apprehended, said Institute of Post-Graduate Medical Education & Research (IPGMER) professor Diptendra Sarkar.
“Despite more than 95% of the Kolkata population being inoculated, transmissibility rate in the city remains more than 1, which means an individual can still transmit the disease to another. In a crowded scenario, this could lead to a spurt in numbers,” Sarkar said.
He, however, felt that most cases would now be mild. “On the other hand, there will be an exchange of crowd between Kolkata and its outskirts, which is again dangerous and could lead to transmission. Above all, we need to protect our children, who remain unvaccinated and vulnerable,” said Sarkar.
Sauren Panja, intensivist, RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences, pointed out that Kolkata was probably heading for a repeat of last year when, too, the number of Covid-affected had peaked in the last week of October.
“The plateauing in number has led to complacence, which is evident in the crowds that we now see around us. I expect a surge between the middle and end of October, but it may not be a huge one. Probably, we will see a 30% rise in cases, which will take the number of daily affected in Bengal past the 1,000 mark,” Panja said.
The number of daily affected in Bengal is now hovering around the 700+ mark, according to figures released by the government.
A slow and imperceptible surge may have already begun, said Sarkar. “There has been a spurt in cough and cold cases, many of which could actually be Covid. But they are being mild due to vaccination, so hospitalizations are still rare. Many, though, are being detected with Covid while seeking admission for non-Covid treatment,” said Sarkar.
Peerless Hospital has already seen a spike in Covid admissions. The number of patients is now 31, which is the highest since the second wave. We have never had more than 28 since June,” said Peerless CEO Sudipta Mitra.
He added that the hospital was getting ready to add a Covid ward. RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences (RTIICS) and AMRI, too, have decided to increase Covid beds in view of Puja.
“We have 47 Covid beds, of which 32 are occupied, with 16 critical-care patients. If we see a steady rise in cases, we will add more beds as we have the infrastructure ready. For non-Covid wards, though, we will return to the pre-pandemic roster for doctors and nurses,” said R Venkatesh, zonal head, RTIICS.
At AMRI Hospitals, the number of Covid beds, which is now 50 across its three units, will go up to 75-80. “We will also have more doctors and nurses ready in case there is a sudden spurt in admissions during the Pujas,” said CEO Rupak Barua.
Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/take-guard-against-rise-in-covid-cases-warn-experts/articleshow/86924229.cms
