West Bengal: Third wave may have shorter peak, say experts – Times of India

KOLKATA: While the sharp drop in positivity rate signifies the dying out of the second wave — it has dropped below 3% — the numbers could start spiralling in just over a month-and-a-half, fear experts. And the wave could spiral very quickly, similar to what had happened during the second wave and drop just as suddenly if right measures were taken, they predicted. Vaccination, they pointed out, will act as a more effective shield this time and may ensure a mild disease and fewer patients.
The state could be heading for the third Covid wave between August and October, albeit with fewer being affected and a shorter ‘peak period’ than the second wave, they felt.

“Like the second wave, we will perhaps have a sharp rise, an even shorter peak and a quick decline in numbers. This could happen due to two factors — vaccination and the fact that the virus needs enough new strains to strike and affect a large population. Even though strains like Delta and Delta Plus have surfaced, they are no longer fresh ones,” said Peerless Hospital microbiologist Bhaskar Narayan Chaudhuri. Vaccination will protect a vast majority of the population or will restrict the disease to a mild one, he said.
Numbers should remain low for at least another month till the third wave strikes, said CMRI director of pulmonology Raja Dhar. “While we would receive more than a dozen patients everyday till a month ago, now we get one every 48 hours,” he said. Dhar added the cases may start spiralling slowly towards end-July and early August, reaching a peak by September. “While the third wave could be mild with a far lesser number of cases than the second wave and consequently fewer deaths, it will still continue for a couple of months. The pattern will be similar to the previous waves except for the fact that this could be the mildest one,” added Dhar.
More children, however, could be affected during this wave, warned experts. “They are the largest un-vaccinated section of the population now and hence most vulnerable to the virus. But the more we vaccinate, we will create a shield around our un-vaccinated children that will help to save lives,” said Belle Vue Clinic internal medicine consultant Rahul Jain.
According to a study, just 2% of the affected were children in the first wave but the percentage climbed to 12% during the second. “We have new strains now and we don’t yet know how effectively vaccines are going to work against them. But since people are more cautious now, transmission will be checked which should ensure a shorter wave,” said RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences intensivist Sauren Panja.
The possibility of the third week striking earlier than August can’t be ruled out, though, warned Chaudhuri. “Delta and Delta Plus may not be the only new strains. Over the next few weeks, more could surface against which we have no resistance yet. That could hasten and prolong the wave,” said Chaudhuri.